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Larry Sabato From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to navigationJump to search Larry Sabato Larry Sabato.jpg Sabato in 2008 Born Larry Joseph Sabato August 7, 1952 (age 66) Norfolk, Virginia, U.S. Occupation Professor Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics Website http://www.larrysabato.com http://www.centerforpolitics.org

Sabato in 2008

Larry Joseph Sabato, Norfolk (Virginia), V.S.,7 augustus 1952 is een Amerikaans politiek wetenschapper en politiek analist.

Hij is de Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics aan de University of Virginia, waarvan hij zowel de stichter als directeur is van het Center for Politics, dat werkzaam is om civiele engagement en participatie te bevorderen. Het Center for Politics is ook verantwoordelijk voor de publicatie van Sabato's Crystal Ball, een online nieuwsbrief en website, die vrije politieke analyses and electorale vooruitzichten leveren.

Contents 1 Early life and education 2 Professorship 3 Author 4 Sabato's Crystal Ball 4.1 Predictions accuracy until 2016 5 Earmark controversy 6 References 7 External links

Afkomst en opleiding

Sabato groeide op in Norfolk (Virginia), waar hij in 1970 de opleiding aanNorfolk Catholic High School afrondde. Vier jaar later studeerde hij af aan de University of Virginia. Een peiling van Cavalier Daily in 1974 toonde aan dat meer mensen Sabato herkenden als voorzitter van de studentenraad dan Edgar F. Shannon Jr. konden noemen als president van de universiteit. Sabato behaalde Phi Beta Kappa een graad in Bestuursrecht. Daarna studeerde hij een jaar aan de Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Hij werd in 1975 onderscheiden met een Rhodes Scholarship, wat hem in staat stelde brought te studeren aan The Queen's College van Oxford University. In minder dan twee jaar he behaalde hij zijn doctoraat in politicologie aan Oxford.

Voorafgaand aan zijn tijd als een politiek analist, werkte Sabato gedurende negen jaar samen met de Virginia Democratic Party politicus Henry Howell. Op zijn 15de steunde Sabato Howell's eerste campagne voor het Virginia gouverneurschap in 1968 en vervolgens diens succesvolle campagne voor plaatsvervangend gouverneur in 1971, en zijn campagnes voor gouverneur in 1973 en 1977.

Sabato is van Italiaanse afkomst.

Hoogleraar

Voordat hij een academicus werd aan de University of Virginia, publiceerde Sabato works over de opkomst twee-partijen politiek in het zuiden van de Verenigde Staten, waarvan meest vermeldenswaardig is zijn publicatie in 1977 over de voorverkiezing van de Democratische Partij in Virginia: "Niet langer gelijkwaardig" naar de Verkiezing". In 1978 werd Sabato lid van de faculteit Rechten van de University of Virginia. Sindsdien is hij hij betrokken bij onderzoek en heeft hij colleges gegeven aan meer dan 14.000 studenten. He is a University Professor and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.[3] In 2005 doneerde Sabato een gift van $1 miljoen contribution aan UVA, the grootste donatie van een faculteitslid ooit.

Author

Sabato is the author of over twenty books on politics, including Feeding Frenzy: Attack Journalism and American Politics and The Rise of Political Consultants: New Ways of Winning Elections',He is the co-author of Dirty Little Secrets: The Persistence of Corruption in American Politics' with Glenn R. Simpson.

In January 2011, he published Pendulum Swing, which analyzed the 2010 midterm elections and the potential effect of Republican Party victories on the 2012 presidential, congressional, and state-level elections.[6]

Prior to Pendulum Swing, Sabato authored The Year of Obama in 2009 and A More Perfect Constitution in 2007, which discussed his ideas for amending the U.S. Constitution. Other Sabato books include The Sixth Year Itch: The Rise and Fall of the George W. Bush Presidency, Divided States of America: The Slash and Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election, and Get in the Booth! A Citizen's Guide to the 2004 Election, and writes for Sabato's Crystal Ball. He has written textbooks used by high school and college American government classes,[citation needed] and been a frequent guest analyst on cable news outlets[which?] as well as radio programs[which?].

His book The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy.[7] was published in 2013. It focuses on John F. Kennedy's life, administration, and assassination and contains research from focus groups, polling, and interviews with colleagues and eyewitnesses.

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Sabato's Crystal Ball is run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics in Charlottesville. The site contains analysis of an array of political races in the United States, including presidential elections, Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests.

Predictions accuracy until 2016

Prior to the 2002 midterm elections, where the Republican Party saw gains in both branches of Congress, Sabato's Crystal Ball website accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the House of Representatives and 32 of 34 Senate races.[8]

In 2004, which saw Republicans retain the White House and gain seats in the House and Senate, Crystal Ball correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races (99% accuracy), missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race and two states in the Electoral College.[9]

In August 2006, Crystal Ball predicted that the Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, providing them with a majority in both chambers. Sabato's predictions proved correct: each of his 33 Senate predictions were accurate, and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats went on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).[10]

In 2006 Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. In 2006, he was the only national analyst who correctly predicted the exact Democratic gains in Senate and House contests.[10]

In July 2008, Crystal Ball correctly projected that Barack Obama would win the presidency in a near-landslide.[11] Sabato predicted a 364–174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.[12] The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008 being Obama 365 and McCain 173. (It did not predict an Obama win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, as he did not make separate predictions for individual congressional districts in states that split their electoral votes on such factors (he started making separate predictions for such districts in 2012, probably because of this occurrence)). Crystal Ball also accurately predicted 34 of all 35 Senate races, and 11 gubernatorial races correctly.[13]

In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives.[14] The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans.[15] The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.[16]

In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[17] The projection was similar to the actual results, but Crystal Ball under-estimated Obama's number of electoral votes (332) and under-estimated Democratic victories in both the Senate (Democrats picked up two seats) and in the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).

Crystal Ball made widespread incorrect predictions in 2016, wrongly predicting the outcome of the presidential race, as well as the outcomes of the House and Senate races. The night before voting took place, Sabato appeared on MSBNC and stated that Hillary Clinton would win 322 and Trump would win 216 electoral college votes; in fact, Trump won 306 and Clinton won 232. Sabato and his staff summarized the results in an article entitled "Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa."[18]

Earmark controversy

In June 2009, it was revealed that Sabato's Center for Politics had been the recipient of over seven million dollars in earmark money from Congressman Virgil Goode, whom Sabato predicted would win re-election in 2008, despite declining poll numbers; Goode ultimately lost the race by fewer than 800 votes out of about 316,000 votes cast.[19] Political blogger Greg Sargent suggested that Sabato should have revealed his Center's financial connection to Goode or recused himself from making predictions about the race.[20]